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Commodity Price Forecasting - HELP!

M

Mubin Khwaja

New Member
Hello!

I am doing commodity price forecasting, and I have data of daily prices from April 2012- April 2014.

The problem i’m having is (1) There are some daily data values missing, and (2) after I have dealt with the missing values (using smoothing), i have a problem calculating the seasonal indices because there are different numbers of working days in each month. some months have 23 days, some 21, some 20. because of the differing number of days, I cannot successfully calculate the seasonal effect. how do i tackle this problem?

P.S. I’m fairly new to excel, so please be gentle
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Attachments

  • Commodity Price Forecasting - Wheat.xlsx
    27 KB · Views: 6
Mubin Khwaja said:
Hello!

I am doing commodity price forecasting, and I have data of daily prices from April 2012- April 2014.

The problem i’m having is (1) There are some daily data values missing, and (2) after I have dealt with the missing values (using smoothing), i have a problem calculating the seasonal indices because there are different numbers of working days in each month. some months have 23 days, some 21, some 20. because of the differing number of days, I cannot successfully calculate the seasonal effect. how do i tackle this problem?

P.S. I’m fairly new to excel, so please be gentle
icon_smile.gif
Click to expand...
Please check is this okay
 

Attachments

  • Commodity Price Forecasting - Wheat Updated.xlsx
    65.6 KB · Views: 13
Thank you Mr. Narain for the prompt reply. I still have an issue though. In order to calculate the seasonal effect, I have to arrange the data according to number of days, (will attach file to show you what i mean). And that number has to be equal for all months. So, i need to find a way to make all months have equal number of days. Does anyone know what i mean? or if i'm wrong in assuming this is the only way to calculate the seasonal effect? and come to think about it, in order to calculate the moving averages (20/21/22/23 day and the following centered moving average) i also need equal intervals. That is the depth of my econometric/forecasting knowledge so far, i.e. dealing with equally spaced intervals.
 

Attachments

  • seasonal effectindex.xlsx
    16.5 KB · Views: 13
@Mubin Khwaja I am also quite keen on seeing the solution for this!
Btw I have been trying to find the historical data for pulses prices changes. Could you give me few advice on where can I get this data please?
 
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